This July, Bitcoin’s price has been on the rise, recovering from the downtrend of June and reaching new highs for the month. Despite this positive movement, uncertainty lingers among investors as the price of BTC remains below $70,000. As the month nears its end, the key question is whether Bitcoin will end July in the green or fall back to bearish territory.
Analyzing Bitcoin’s Historical Performance
Historical data can offer valuable insights for investors in volatile assets like Bitcoin, shedding light on potential future price movements. One notable trend is the recurring four-year cycle of bull markets that Bitcoin has followed.
Examining shorter timeframes, such as monthly performance, can also provide indications of where Bitcoin’s price might be headed next, especially when compared against historical data from preceding months.
Based on data from Coinglass, Bitcoin’s monthly returns for the first quarter of the year mirrored those of 2023, with January, February, and March all closing in the green, similar to the previous year.
However, the second quarter saw a deviation from past patterns in monthly performance. Each month displayed the opposite trend compared to the same months in 2023.
For instance, while April 2023 recorded a 2.81% positive return, April 2024 saw a 14.76% decrease. Similar discrepancies were observed in May and June, with May 2024 registering an 11.07% increase while May 2023 reported a 6.98% drop, and June 2024 showing a 6.96% decline compared to June 2023’s 11.98% growth.
Entering the third quarter, Bitcoin appears to be following the second quarter’s trajectory. With July almost over, Bitcoin’s price has already climbed by 7.27%, contrasting with July 2023’s 4.02% decline.
If the third quarter maintains the pattern set in the second quarter, it suggests that July 2024 could conclude in the green. Additionally, given the 11.29% loss that marked August 2023, a positive outlook for August this year seems plausible.
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