Jobs reports and Federal Reserve speeches will dominate the week ahead, which follows a tumultuous one for markets.
The second estimate for Q4 GDP confirmed that the economy grew at a solid 2.3% pace, led by consumer and government spending, but concerns about future GDP growth persist due to potential government spending cuts and trade tariffs.
Additionally, last Friday’s Core PCE, which the central bank uses to measure inflation, offered some minor relief.
“The next Fed meeting is currently just 16 days away, and it comes amid major market volatility,” commented the Kobeissi Letter.
Economic Events Mar. 3 to 7
February’s ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) is due on Monday. The data provides a glance at business conditions in the US manufacturing sector, which serves as an indicator of overall economic conditions.
February’s ISM Services PMI is due on Wednesday. This report shows business conditions in the services sector, which contributes over 70% of the US GDP.
There are several labor market reports released this week, including ADP nonfarm employment data, initial jobless claims data, and the February Jobs Report on Friday.
These reports are important economic indicators, as the shift in the number of positions is strongly associated with the overall health of the economy.
“Layoffs are also likely to accumulate more over time given the [Trump] administration’s plan to further reduce the Federal workforce,” wrote Bank of America’s economics on Friday.
Key Events This Week:
1. February ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday
2. ADP Nonfarm Employment data – Wednesday
3. Initial Jobless Claims data – Thursday
4. February Jobs Report – Friday
5. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Friday
6. Total of 9 Fed Speaker Events This Week
This…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 2, 2025
There will be nine Federal Reserve speaker events this week, which may offer some insight into the likelihood of a rate cut on March 19. According to the CME Fed Watch Tool, there is a 95% that rates will remain unchanged.
Crypto Market Surges
Crypto markets have been boosted by Donald Trump’s US crypto reserve announcement on Sunday. The crypto reserve, which will hold BTC and ETH, could also include XRP, SOL, and ADA, said Trump.
This caused massive surges in their prices as markets added $300 billion in a matter of hours, propelling total capitalization by 8% to $3.2 trillion at the time of writing.
Bitcoin surged by almost $10,000, hitting an intraday high of $94,900 before pulling back slightly during Monday trading in Asia. Ethereum jumped 10% to top $2,500, but it still remains weak compared to other altcoins.
The biggest gainers were XRP, with 35% to $3 at one point, Solana (SOL) adding 18% to top $175, and Cardano (ADA) surging 60% to reclaim $1.
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